The last poll before the election has given Labour the edge – but also provided New Zealand First fresh hope it could survive in Parliament.
In the Newshub Reid Research poll, Labour received 45.8 per cent support, down 4.3 per cent. National received 31.1 per cent, up 1.5 per cent.
But NZ First has risen to 3.5 per cent, up from its previous 1.6 per cent.
Act is at 7.4 per cent, up 1.1 per cent. While the Green Party are down to 6.3 per cent, down 0.2 per cent.
Translating into seats in the House, Labour would have 61, National 41, Act 9 and the Greens 8.
On preferred Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern is at 52.6 per cent, down 0.6 percentage points, while Judith Collins is on 18.4 up 0.7 percentage points.
On the referendum questions, support for End of life choice was at 56.1 per cent, while no was at 33.4 per cent.
On the cannabis referendum, 55.6 per cent said no, while 38.3 said yes.
Prior to the release of the poll, Newshub political editor Tova O’Brien has billed it as “the ultimate nail-biter.”
The last Reid-Research poll at the end of September had Labour able to form a majority on its own, with 50.1 per cent, while National was on 29.6 per cent.
Act was on 6.3 per cent, the Green Party on 6.5 per cent, and NZ First was on 1.9 per cent.
It comes a day after the last 1 News Colmar Brunton poll of the campaign, which had Labour comfortably ahead but just short of a majority – it would need the Green Party to govern.
That poll had Labour on 46 per cent, down 1 percentage point, while National was 31 per cent, also down 1 percentage point.
Act was steady on 8 per cent, the Greens up two percentage points to 8 per cent, and NZ First up two points to 3 per cent.
The poll follows a week on the campaign trail in which Labour leader Jacinda Ardern filled her agenda with “walkabouts” and urged supporters to give Labour as strong a mandate as possible, while National leader Judith Collins encouraged National supporters not to split their votes by supporting Act or NZ First.
Collins has also talked about the so-called “quiet New Zealanders” who were keeping their cards close to their chests, referring to Australian Prime Minster Scott Morrison’ poll-defying win in the Australian election. Morrison had put that down to the “quiet Australians”.
In the final TVNZ debate last night, Ardern made a blatant play for soft National Party votes, directly speaking to people who had not voted for Labour before to do so this time to ensure she could easily progress policies to address Covid-19.